Out Years, Doubt Years

Whenever you watch the career politicians address a spending issue such as we are facing at the current time, they propose a “glide path” toward fiscal sanity. Invariably the majority of the necessary budget cuts are scheduled for the “out years”….the years beyond what a normal person would determine is prudent forecasting. For example, the Paul Ryan budget proposal has the budget achieving balance in ten years (9 “out years”), but with 9 consecutive years of deficit spending the Ryan proposal would leave a national debt of $24 billion in the 10^th year. His plan went further in the out years with a supposition assuming years 11 and forward would generate surpluses for reducing the debt. Welcome to Fantasy Island.

The “out years” are a figment of creative political imaginations. They are more appropriately called the “doubt years” because it’s doubtful that any of the projections and assumptions in the original legislation will ever occur. Historically, the later years in long term forecasts have always been worse than the authors anticipated. Some of the more recent examples are LBJ’s War on Poverty which has squandered more than $6 trillion through the years, and our poverty rate is similar to what it was when the programs were initiated. Medicare is another glaring miscalculation (or intentional misrepresentation) as the program has far exceeded the expected costs.

There are a number of reasons for out year projections to be so woefully wrong. One is that no one can predict the future with any degree of certainty. A second is that no Congress can bind succeeding Congresses to budgetary items. The new Congress can increase or decrease (rarely done) the line items for a program without being constrained by the original estimates. Also, Congresspersons rely on the rosiest estimates and outlandish assumptions when they sell their program to their colleagues and the public. Finally, they lie…misrepresent, mischaracterize, misstate. With all due respect to Congressman Ryan, his scenario is much too optimistic, but even if it were “on the money,” it fails to solve our debt problem. By the time that the debt is being addressed, our $25 trillion hole may be too large to escape.

Despite the inadequacy of Mr. Ryan’s plan, his is the best one on the table so far. Senator Pat Toomey has introduced one that has a much steeper glide path and takes us to balance much faster, but it hasn’t had any hearings in the Senate and is also too reliant on “out year” performance. Because our fearful government officials have been raiding the candy store and giving the candy away for so many years, the size of the debt, the consequences of the debt, and the payback of the debt have grown too large for a glide path strategy to significantly correct the situation. Plus, politicians are not disciplined enough for it to work. If the political elites are serious about correcting our abysmal financial situation (I don’t believe that very many of them are), the remedy will have to be sudden and painful. Presently, roughly 43% of our annual federal expenditures are financed with borrowed funds (deficit). It should be apparent that any glide path of any length will continue to add to our $14.5 trillion debt. In addition, the political wrangling over the budget and appropriations will become more intense during the out years as politicians seek to protect favorite programs and constituencies. The most effective solution may be a radical two-pronged approach that will create massive displacement and disruption but should ignite an economic boom that should ameliorate much of the agony.

At the risk of repeating myself, the best template for restoring fiscal sanity to our federal government is to begin with the enumerated powers in Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution. Any other guide will fail because of emotional justifications for every program, agency and department in the federal system. Each of them represents a “good idea.” Every one of them addresses a “critical need. “ None of them are efficient or particularly effective, so the Constitutional formula would minimize debate about the efficacy or necessity for much of the deficit spending. A majority of Congress must be willing to fall on the hand grenade in order to pull our nation back from the brink of disaster. The “glide path” must be for two years…one House term because it is possible that the members with the courage to do the right thing will not be re-elected.

Those of us who believe in liberty, small Constitutional government and self-reliance must be willing and ready to suffer the concussion and absorb the shrapnel when the blast goes off. Who am I kidding? There are not enough politicians to take the heat and not enough citizens to absorb the shock. We’ll continue playing our games with our fragile future by kicking the can further down the road as the “out years” become the “doubt years.” Before too long the doubt will be replaced by dismal certainty. Reality is a cruel teacher.

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The Prince and the Paupers

As the President was addressing the nation (or the tiny audience that watched) yesterday, I found that my reaction was as predictable as his rhetoric. I do not believe that he is aware that the “all men are created equal” society of the United States has different expectations for our leaders than Kenyans have for their historic royalty. Vague royal pronouncements from the Prince do not allay the concerns and worries of the people. They sense that he is transforming them into paupers. After all, he does take pride in his transformational presidency. When the nation is wallowing in absolute insolvency, he can call another press conference and claim “Mission Accomplished.”

Obama used a term during his address that I found staggering for its effrontery. He claimed that part of his deficit reduction plan would be to save a trillion dollars through spending reductions in the tax code. That little term provides a picture window insight into the real attitudes and ideology of the poseur. The implication of the statement is that all money belongs to the government, and any portion of it that the people are permitted to keep is an expenditure…spending. So, the imperial prince of mendacity has determined that the government should cut spending by raising taxes. He wants more money from taxpayers so that he doesn’t have to curtail the goody packages that he hands to his most loyal supporters.

El Presidente’ delivered a laundry list of pandering programs that he asserted were national priorities. Perhaps they are national priorities in his elitist statist mind, but a thorough examination of Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution of the United States reveals no evidence of the existence of any of those programs or goals. Not there. Not constitutional. Perhaps they are worthy. Maybe they are good for the country, but they are not constitutionally mandated or allowed. Nearly every president in our short history has overstepped the bounds of the constitutional limitations. In 1794 a group of western farmers objected to higher excise taxes on whiskey (to pay down the national debt) and resisted. President Washington sent the militia to force their compliance with the offensive tax. Congress has not been immune from blatantly violating their constitutional constraints. Every time some bubble headed legislator has an idea, they manage to further infringe on the rights of the people. So, Obama is not unique, but his sheer audacity and casual disregard, perhaps even contempt, of the constitution is breathtaking and ominous.

Given the willingness of both parties of Congress to cavalierly violate the Constitution and the natural rights of the people, we cannot expect them to suddenly acquire a constitutional conscience. Congress is complicit in the lawbreaking frenzy. Congressmen and Congresswomen believe that their intellects and their compassion are superior to ours; therefore they believe they are obligated to protect us from ourselves. Who, pray tell, will protect us from them? So, in the current environment where the President wishes to raise taxes and promise token reductions in federal spending as we speed towards fiscal collapse, the Congress will provide minimal resistance. They will engage in high sounding rhetoric and predictions of woe (truthfully, for once), but in the end they will hop on board the President’s fast track to failure. It is not coincidental that as the needs of the people increase, and the government lurches to supply them, the people’s abilities and capabilities to solve their own problems diminish. Feed the wolf on a regular basis, and he will forget how to hunt. Government programs have coddled us to the point that our survival as individuals and as a nation will be problematic if the system would collapse.

As we circle back to the President’s address and its underlying philosophy, my pessimistic assessment is that on April 13^th, 2011 at approximately 1:45pm EDT, Barrack Hussein Obama delivered a suicide note for the United States of America. Congressman Paul Ryan responded with a statement that was equivalent to insisting that the President postpone the evil deed for a day or two. Under both scenarios we die. One lingers more than the other. Sometimes politicians believe that they are god-like. Apparently they are because they control the life and death of a great nation, and, it seems they choose death.

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Chop Chop

Four days after the fact, I am still trying to get my head around the paltry $38.5 billion in cuts that have been hailed as a victory. It has been long been a principle of mine that whole departments , agencies and bureaus must be eliminated for any serious attempt for fiscal responsibility to be achieved. Thomas Crown is a frequent contributor to www.redstate.com and penned an enlightening piece. I’ve included it below with some edits for brevity’s sake.

http://www.redstate.com/audax/2011/04/10/republic-began-with-four-federal-departments-our-opening-negotiating-position-for-next-budget-cuts/

Our Federal Republic began with just four Federal Departments. Anything else was left to the individual States to worry about. The Four Departments and their Secretaries where:

State, Thomas Jefferson, Secretary
Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, Secretary
War, Henry Knox, Secretary
Post Office, Benjamin Franklin, Post Master General (responsible for Transportation, i,e, Post Roads)

That’s IT! That’s all we need, except for the Post Office! We don’t need that anymore, private enterprise can do it better and cheaper!

So, here is where we can begin budget cutting up to $1.866 Trillion in the next Federal Budget. These numbers from the 2010 Federal Budget.

$78.7 billion (?1.7%) – Department of Health and Human Services. This should go back to the individual States where it belongs. Where is this in the Constitution?

$72.5 billion (+2.8%) – Department of Transportation. This was in the Post Office Department i.e. Post Roads in the First Federal Government but as our Republic has evolved should now be the provenance of the individual States.

$47.5 billion (+18.5%) – Department of Housing and Urban Development. Where is this in the Constitution?

$46.7 billion (+12.8%) – Department of Education. This should go back to the individual States where it belongs. Where is this in the Constitution?

$42.7 billion (+1.2%) – Department of Homeland Security. If there was EVER a waste of funds, this is it! Important parts to the Department of Justice (i.e. The FBI) or Department of Defense.

$26.3 billion (?0.4%) – Department of Energy. Where is this in the Constitution?  Nuclear stuff to department of Defense.

$26.0 billion (+8.8%) – Department of Agriculture. Where is this in the Constitution? If individual States feel they must “help” their farmers, then let them.

$18.7 billion (+5.1%) – National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Where is this in the Constitution?  Let private enterprise explore space if they feel there is a profit motive in it.

$13.8 billion (+48.4%) – Department of Commerce. Where is this in the Constitution? Let State Department handle any “important” areas that need to be covered.

$13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of Labor. Where is this in the Constitution?

$12.0 billion (+6.2%) – Department of the Interior. Where is this in the Constitution? SELL OFF Federal lands or give to individual States.

$10.5 billion (+34.6%) – Environmental Protection Agency. Where is this in the Constitution? Let individual States handle how they keep their State clean.

$7.0 billion (+1.4%) – National Science Foundation. Where is this in the Constitution?

$5.1 billion (?3.8%) – Corps of Engineers. Where is this in the Constitution? Transfer back to Military, the Military functions, then let individual States handle anything else.

$5.0 billion (+100%) – National Infrastructure Bank. Where is this in the Constitution?

$1.1 billion (+22.2%) – Corporation for National and Community Service. Where is this in the Constitution?

$0.7 billion (0.0%) – Small Business Administration. Where is this in the Constitution?

$19.8 billion (+3.7%) – Other Agencies. WHAT IS THIS???

$105 billion – Other. WHAT IS THIS???

$571 billion (?15.2%) – Other mandatory programs. Are these in the Constitution? If not, CUT!CUT! CUT! Individual States can decide what is best for the taxpayers of that State.

$453 billion (+6.6%) – Medicare. Where is this in the Constitution? Individual States can decide what is best for the taxpayers of that State.

$290 billion (+12.0%) – Medicaid . Where is this in the Constitution? Individual States can decide what is best for the taxpayers of that State.

Once we turn these programs over to the individual States and get the Federal Government OUT of areas they have no Constitutional business being in, then we can “negotiate” from there.                                     

                                          ---End of Crown material---

The bottom line is if Congress (particularly the GOP) is truly committed to Constitutional government and a fiscally responsible budget, they could do it NOW. We do not need a “glide path” towards insolvency. That merely postpones the collapse. They aren’t serious. We know the Democrats are not serious, and we should know that the GOP isn’t serious either. These are people who want to be Congressmen and women. They are not people who want to unplug a stopped-up toilet. We need people who will roll up their sleeves and tackle the dirty jobs. Apparently they are not in Washington, and the national fiscal sewer is backing up more every hour of every day.

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Strike Force

OK, here I go. I’m placing myself on every “watch list” imaginable. After reading about the draconian GOP budget which will leave us with a $26 trillion debt in ten more years and hearing so-called “good government” types praise it and Democrats sniveling as they condemn it, I have decided that we the people should go on strike. The Democrats will spend us into oblivion over night. They will promise the moon, and when the government is too broke to deliver, they will implement their perfect collective society. The Republicans cry about big unconstitutional government and whine about overspending, but lack the courage to take the REALLY BIG STEP to correct the lousy course we’re on. Nickel and diming is precisely what they propose…nickels and dimes when trillions are needed.

How do we implement a strike that would be effective? If you are one of those taxpayers who pays quarterly, and you have a payment due on the 18^th, escrow that puppy…apply for an extension…use every delaying tactic you can to gum up the works. After all, the politicians and bureaucrats have been gumming the works for years. Every time you get one of those “Alert” letters from either party or the AARP, write something educational on the form and send it back without money…WITHOUT MONEY. Make them pay the bulk return postage.

If any government agent from any government agency comes to your property for any reason, demand a warrant before you grant access. Community survey agents, health inspector, agriculture department…any government agent should present a warrant (remember, a warrant requires probable cause that a crime has been committed). Ninety per cent of government visits do not involve a crime, so the demand for the warrant will be like throwing sand in their gears.

Vote against every tax at every level. You might lament, “What about the schools?” Well, when the feds stop interfering in education (a state and local matter), and the federal Department of Education shrinks to nothing, then you and I might have the resources to help the local schools. Another option is to get the local school board to resist and prohibit ANY federal involvement in the school. It would be “nullification” on a mini scale.

The boneheads and clowns in government do not listen to us. They hear only that group of takers who want more from government…more from your sweat, your taxes. It’s time we stopped listening to them. Stop inviting them to your social affairs. Stop giving them free meals and places of honor. Treat them like the 3^rd century lepers they resemble. They ignore you, lie to you, or they say what they believe you want to hear, and then do as they please while mollifying the looters of the world. Banish them from your functions. They are unworthy of your consideration because it’s clear they truly do not value you or our country more than their own pathetic careers.

We see the disaster ahead as our nation, states and communities rush toward the precipice at break neck speed. We are horrified by what we observe, and yet, the politicians and bureaucrats are holding the throttle wide-open until the next election cycle…as they always have. Speaker Boehner, Mr. Cantor, Mr. Ryan…$400 billion per year is like peeing in a hurricane when the annual short fall is $1.65 trillion. Majority Leader Reid, Mr. Durbin, Mr. Schumer…go home. You’ve done enough damage already. If you continue the destructive path you’re following, you should read some French history from the final decade of the 18^th century.

Can this little strike be effective? Probably not unless it goes viral. I am so darn frustrated with liberals, progressives, socialists, statists, moderates, neocons, conservatives…a pox on them all! All I want are patriots…patriots…patriots who will defend my personal liberty…my life, my labor and my property. What we have is a bunch of looters who want my labor, my property and want to control my life. Give me Liberty.

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Double Trouble

As is typical in Washington, there are leaks and hints about the House Republican’s budget proposal that will be unveiled by Paul Ryan and others on Tuesday. Indications are the GOP will call for $4 Trillion in cuts…to be spread over ten years…a decade…one-tenth of a century. If you are mathematically challenged, their numbers reduce annual expenditures by $400 Billion per year…assuming those cuts hold fast (which they will not) for every year. Presently, our annual deficit is $1.65 TRILLION, so even if the Republicans pass their plan and hold true for a decade, the federal debt will explode from $14.3 Trillion to $26.8 Trillion when the decade has passed. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? This is fiscal responsibility?

A frequent refrain in our public discourse deals with the “unsustainability” of the $14.3 Trillion debt. So $26.8 Trillion ….or more…is more sustainable? That damn “new math” trend that we went through in the past has finally manifested itself in our government “leadership.” It appears to me that the $400 billion in annual cuts are merely buying time. Apparently $400 billion per year for time must be a bargain. The GOP will whine that this is the best they can do given the Democratic Senate and the Democrat at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Sorry, O’ Fearful Ones, it is not good enough. They’ll respond that we may face a “shutdown” of the federal government if they “overreach.” My response is that we face a “shutdown” of the federal government sometime within the next ten years because they underperformed. When will banks, nations and investors cease purchasing our debt? Besides…does any sentient person really believe that they will hold the line on the $400 billion annual reduction? Inflation (caused in part by their overspending) and anecdotal sob stories will tap into the budget for more programs, more agencies and more money. Republicans, you are trying to scam us with a shell game, and we aren’t buying it.

This column is a bipartisan beat down. The Republicans are not the only ones responsible for our fiscal sewer. The Democrats have bushels of blame in their storehouse of perfidy. They are the “Anti-Rainman.” That means that they lack even the most basic math skills. Democrats add 2+2 and get “soak the rich.” Democrats promise everything to everyone and expect the top two per cent (2%) of earners to pay for it all plus the massive supporting bureaucracies with the friendly public sector union members and dollars. Clearly, Democrats have spent too much time smoking dope otherwise how does one explain their radical deficiency of brain cells?

Other columnist and I have written that shaving a percentage off the top of the budget is a meaningless symbolism. It will not work. One must “zero out” entire agencies, departments and bureaus to achieve anything close to balance. House Republicans, you have fewer than 24 hours until you unveil your “bold, new” (ineffective, clownish) plan. I suggest that ALL of you and a few semi-responsible Democrats visit Walter Reed Medical Center. Walk the halls, enter the rooms and wards. Talk to the brave women and men who have suffered wounds in battle. Pay particular attention to those who have lost limbs as a result of their injuries. Often, on the battlefield a warrior becomes wounded, and the triage physicians or medics must make a critical decision. “Lose the limb and save the life” is a frequent conclusion. While wandering through the hospital, observe how many of our brave young warriors are being fitted for prosthesis (one or more). As they rehabilitate, they are learning to go forward with their lives after losing, sacrificing an important part of their bodies for our country.

House members, how can you ask these warriors to sacrifice for your irresponsible actions? Save the nation. Sacrifice the limbs of agencies, bureaus and departments to save the body of our country. What you are proposing is the least that you can do. The least isn’t good enough. We need your BEST shot…NOW.

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